Predictions for 2010

[Charles]

Predictions for 2010

by Charles » Jan 4th, '10, 18:23

I've written an article making 10 predictions for the tea industry in 2010. http://www.tearetailer.com/article_25.html

What are your predictions?

[Chip]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Chip » Jan 4th, '10, 18:40

Great article, very informative yet concise. It is a reality check for teacup dreamers considering following their passion for tea into turbulent and very uncertain business.

But for each down, there has historically always been a bounce upward ... will it be in 2010 for tea. I do not believe that tea has peaked, far from it. I am still bullish on tea futures.

Tea is a luxury that consumers can still generally afford, and I would expect more spending on tea and less on larger ticket items.

I could not argue with any points except for #10 of course.

[AdamMY]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by AdamMY » Jan 4th, '10, 18:44

Today I drove past my local tea shop for the first time in awhile (mind you I'm at school most of the year, and hadn't been that way for all of break). And I noticed it closed down. As much as I'd like to start a tea business, I know I'd have to work for many years to even get close to having the capital to create the quality of business I'd wish to create.

[Charles]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Charles » Jan 4th, '10, 18:56

Today I drove past my local tea shop for the first time in awhile (mind you I'm at school most of the year, and hadn't been that way for all of break). And I noticed it closed down. As much as I'd like to start a tea business, I know I'd have to work for many years to even get close to having the capital to create the quality of business I'd wish to create.

Sad to hear that. What town?

I wouldn't try to open a tea shop with less than $250K in available capital. Just too risky.

[AdamMY]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by AdamMY » Jan 4th, '10, 19:00

Today I drove past my local tea shop for the first time in awhile (mind you I'm at school most of the year, and hadn't been that way for all of break). And I noticed it closed down. As much as I'd like to start a tea business, I know I'd have to work for many years to even get close to having the capital to create the quality of business I'd wish to create.

Sad to hear that. What town?

I wouldn't try to open a tea shop with less than $250K in available capital. Just too risky.

Geneva, IL. I thought the store stood a chance till I was in there this summer. When it opened a year and a half ago, they always seemed to be rather busy. But I stopped by for lunch this summer, and the entire Hour I was in there, I never saw a non staff person there. And that was prime lunch time.

[RachelC]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by RachelC » Jan 4th, '10, 19:36

Geneva, IL. I thought the store stood a chance till I was in there this summer. When it opened a year and a half ago, they always seemed to be rather busy. But I stopped by for lunch this summer, and the entire Hour I was in there, I never saw a non staff person there. And that was prime lunch time.

Geneva? Are talking about Downtown Geneva? I go that way rather often don't remember a tea place there. Just curious.

[AdamMY]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by AdamMY » Jan 4th, '10, 19:42

Yes down town Geneva, it was more o fa tea house then a tea shop but they did have a few things you could buy.

It was along Main street and called Infusions Tea Shoppe.

[Charles]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Charles » Jan 4th, '10, 20:37

It was along Main street and called Infusions Tea Shoppe.

They closed in October I believed and opened a kiosk in Fox Valley Mall. That said, I'm not sure if it was a seasonal or long term thing...

[gingkoseto]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by gingkoseto » Jan 5th, '10, 13:47

Haha, I like the last one. I have full confidence in oolong

[gingkoseto]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by gingkoseto » Jan 5th, '10, 13:53

I have to admit that I haven't been caring too much about local tea stores. Some are too small to catch attention. Some grandiose tea stores in large cities make me feel they are for people richer than me

But I have been watching on a tea store in Toronto (All Things Tea on Bloor St.). I like its friendliness and diversity of tea. It seems a bit too quiet to me, in terms of business flow, especially compared with the busy Tim Horton across street. But I guess they have other revenues besides store sale. I hope they can sustain well, not to shrink to smaller size or grow expensive.

[Sumitta]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Sumitta » Jan 10th, '10, 21:43

I disagree with oolongs. I think that roobios are the teas for 2010. They are undervalued and brilliant.

The problem with tea is that there isn't a compliment food for it. We vision coffee with breakfast, donuts, etc. There is a century of meeting for coffee in greasy spoon diners, over ten years of sitting in Starbucks or "City Perk" style coffee shops. Coffee is America ever since we tossed tea into Boston harbour in protest of tax.

Even the term tea party is derivative to either protests or erudite debutantes.

Those of us that love tea, should recognize the challenge. Subpar Lipton black, white or green tea is horribly bitter. It only tastes good with lots of cream and sweetener. It is not usually served ready made and there are no free refills (aka more tea bags).

Tea is also something you need to educate yourself on: How long to steep, how hot, what each tea tastes like, etc.

My prediction for 2010? Tea needs to associate with something up-and-coming or it will be associated with something old-and-going.

[bsteele]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by bsteele » Jan 10th, '10, 23:48

My predictions for '10:

More tea in my belly.

Ah yes, it shall be a glorious year.

[Charles]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Charles » Jan 11th, '10, 10:31

The problem with tea is that there isn't a compliment food for it... Subpar Lipton black, white or green tea is horribly bitter. It only tastes good with lots of cream and sweetener.

Au conrtraire!! There are only a few countries that don't pair tea with all sorts of meals. The US happens to be one of those, but we change our patterns pretty frequently. 20 years ago very few people were drinking wine with dinner either. Globally tea is FAR more popular than coffee. I don't think the failure is in the leaf.

Tea, depending on the type, pairs marvelously with everything from spicy Spanish dishes to rich Italian pastas to traditional American meat and potatoes. Eduction in this country is lacking, but the first step is to overcome the perception that tea is bitter and requires sweeteners and milk. A quality tea prepared correctly - black, oolong, green or white is most decidedly NOT bitter - and this is where the Adagio Retail Store finds its mission. Introducing people to quality tea!

[slurp]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by slurp » Jan 22nd, '10, 10:45

Eduction in this country is lacking

you couldn't have said better

[Siouxie]

Re: Predictions for 2010

by Siouxie » Jan 22nd, '10, 10:56

The comparison of tea and wine is right on! If you remember we started with the really sweet ones and then got really sophisticated (in the US) and stated to imbibe White Zinfandel- a travesty to wine- and Liebfraumilch. It took a long time to wrest the sophisticates from their white Zin and "Mother's Milk" to begin trying Chardonnays and Cabernet. There are still some hangers on who haven't discovered the other varieties but the same applies to Teas. It requires education as you said and some creative events and thinking. Wine tastings and Festivals were key to pushing wine culture forward but consumers still depend on the media to tell them what is cool.
Anyone for FesTEAvals around the country geared to the education of the interested but not yet passionate variety?