Dayi's bubble bursting ?


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Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby Bad Jedi » Jun 6th, '13, 10:00

Here is an interesting observation from Fangcun tea market.
Today morning major Dayi distributor in Guangzhou dropped prices of few high end Dayi 2013 teas by more than half .
For Example :Dayi Qiaomu 301 with price tag of more than 20k rmb per jian , dropped down to 9k per jian.

Way too early to make any conclusions but it is very interesting what hides beneath .

Dayi Quiomu 2013.jpg
Dayi Quiomu 2013.jpg (33.68 KiB) Viewed 1366 times
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby MarshalN » Jun 6th, '13, 12:41

We've seen this before in early 2007. It could happen again, the prices were going a bit nuts
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby Bad Jedi » Jun 6th, '13, 14:05

MarshalN wrote:We've seen this before in early 2007. It could happen again, the prices were going a bit nuts


It is reminds 2007 but this time nothing to do with CNNP :)
Well, what you can expect when greedy investment company runs the show . They only care about fast ROI and profit , have you seen their CCTV advertisement budget numbers? Their prices are way disconnected from the product quality for few years already .
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby jayinhk » Jun 6th, '13, 14:50

Pu erh and (dirty) bubbles seem to go hand in hand. :)
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby Evan Draper » Jun 6th, '13, 15:20

jayinhk wrote:Pu erh and (dirty) bubbles seem to go hand in hand. :)

BON MOT CHECK!
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby MarshalN » Jun 6th, '13, 21:02

Actually Dayi and Xiaguan were heavily hit as well in 2007. At one point new cakes for Dayi went for 200+ RMB, and then crashed back to about 50
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby gingkoseto » Jun 6th, '13, 21:33

9k per jian is still awfully expensive, if the tea is nothing special.
If the tea is worth 3k, put on market for 20k and then drop to 9k, I would call it bubbling, not bursting :lol:
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby mr mopu » Jun 6th, '13, 22:01

After the 7542 price explosion maybe they are coming to their senses about pricing. I guess if they don't sell at the higher mark ups they may be reducing pricing to move inventory. Let's hope the bubble bursting trend continues. It can only benefit the consumer like me who grabs a Dayi beeng on occasion 8)
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby Bad Jedi » Jun 7th, '13, 01:58

gingkoseto wrote:9k per jian is still awfully expensive, if the tea is nothing special.
If the tea is worth 3k, put on market for 20k and then drop to 9k, I would call it bubbling, not bursting :lol:


I've tasted that cake , nothing special for 600rmb retail.
For this price you can get plenty of awesome teas.
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby jayinhk » Jun 7th, '13, 05:15

Bad Jedi wrote:
gingkoseto wrote:9k per jian is still awfully expensive, if the tea is nothing special.
If the tea is worth 3k, put on market for 20k and then drop to 9k, I would call it bubbling, not bursting :lol:


I've tasted that cake , nothing special for 600rmb retail.
For this price you can get plenty of awesome teas.


And therein lies the crux. People are actually tasting and comparing teas rather than just investing blindly. With the advent of tea forums and publications, dedicated drinkers, collectors and investors can find out all they need to know (and then some) before jumping in.
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby shah82 » Jun 8th, '13, 02:38

Remember, way back when, in the youth of puerh.net era, when we used to complain about how $300 for the '99 Black Ticket Big Green Tree was outrageous?

about $2000 these days. Bit less to much more, depending...
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Re: Dayi's bubble bursting ?

Postby apache » Jun 9th, '13, 06:37

I saw an interesting Chinese blog by ulumochi.

He quoted an article from a tea trader in Fangcun.
The main points are:
There are very little tradings. Reasons are buyers would not want to enter the market at presenting price knowing that price will continue to drop whereas sellers would not want to loose that much money. So it is a stalemate.

The batch size of 1301 Zaochun is bigger than Danqing, as now Danqing is well below 8k rmb per box, not very likely Dayi could pump Zoachun.

It stated that at the end of this year, Danqing would be around 6k rmb per box and Zaochun would be around 15k rmb.

Moral of Danqing is that selling it earlier would make more money. (Apache: this is very interesting, at the beginning some Dayi flagship stores were limiting it supply and selling it one tong per hour!)

There is a secret Dayi trump card, 2012 Yanyun (岩韻) 201. This tea has been keeping in storage and have not been released. Dayi would only use it as a last resort to lift the market.

p.s. Just did a quick search on TB, one shop selling 201 Yangyun at 1800 rmb per 357g cake. There is only one cake.
http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=a230r.1.14.1.xT5FiB&id=18498166276
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