I've never had aged pu but I have 100 tongs of 2009 sheng

[Milhouse]

click click!

[Milhouse]

odarwin,

I agree with you that nothing beats a flight to Hong Kong to enjoy some real tea but for many of us living in the states that is a very expensive trip just to go drink some tea with someone like cloud. For me though if i decided i wanted to collect pu-erh than i would not hesitate to spend the money for a trip to HK and Yunnan to learn more from the people that know it best before spending that money on tongs of new tea. After all if i have to wait 15-20yrs for a cake to mature than it should be easy to wait to make that investment until after i have a little experience under my belt. Until i reach that point I'm happy to read everything i can online. Always with grain of salt.

[TomVerlain]

As they say in the mastercard commercials - priceless - drinking a 1970's sheng in HK.

I did not meet cloud, but all the tea shops I went to were wonderful. A real education, and a greater appreication of tea.

[auhckw]

As they say in the mastercard commercials - priceless - drinking a 1970's sheng in HK.

I did not meet cloud, but all the tea shops I went to were wonderful. A real education, and a greater appreication of tea.

[/img]

What a way to serve tea with the calculator on the table Must be drinking and talking about how much they willing to sell and discount, blah blah blah...

[betta]

to be honest... and i hope i dont offend anyone, but to me blogs or sites are just to "wet your appetite"... IMHO, if circumstances allow, nothing beats a plane ticket to hong kong, and to have cloud sit with you and try some very nice tea from his collection... it doesn't even need to be cloud... it could be a teashop that someone here can set you up with to have a tasting of some teas... that way, you really have a standard to gauge. nothing really beats experience in my opinion.

Perhaps I misunderstood your intention; I interprete your message as:
"cold, breezing words".

I gather your experience and tea appreciation have increased by leaps and bounds after getting hands on experiences and meeting the right people.
For me who don't have time for such a long trip, I need people who are generous with their knowledge, willing to write down/share their experiences. For example, what cake is considered "good", "average" or so. Whom to contact and how to get antique teawares.
Let the readers try tea with the so-called grade and develop their own perception of what they like or dislike.

Of course very few people are willing to share as they gather their experiences with expense of, lets say... "tuition fee" in any form.
Those who are willing to share, may have motives behind it.

In another words, no free luch; should one need 2 years to master a skill, why should he let others know the short-cut trick and learn the same skill in 6 months?

Despite whatever written on the blogs, I'm grateful for they're still generous enough to share there. How I interprete the information there, is another story.

[beecrofter]

A shotgun approach to Puerh purchases may not be optimum but the direct experience speeds the learning process.

One question however, which is more likely to appreciate in value over the long term ?
A hundred dollar bill or a tong of tea?

[shah82]

Depends on the tea. Bad tea and mediocre tea that isn't aging well will depreciate just like a buck will, but worse. Bad puer is much more likely to be worthless due to the whole durable goods aspect of that tea.

Oolongs need maintenance. Green tea of course is much less exiting aged. Some black teas does well with a bit of post fermentation, but people rarely charge extra for older black tea, unless that's the point, and we're talking 10-20+ years!

Good puerh will appreciate better than a dollar. Just understand that more and more puerh is produced all the time, faster than it can be consumed. It's hard to figure what puerh will be good in the future, money-value-wise. As in, we should have stable and cheap supply of 10-15yo Dayi by the 2020s, even though they might be very nice to your buds. Something you've never heard of today will sell for the big bucks in the 2020s.

[MarshalN]

A shotgun approach to Puerh purchases may not be optimum but the direct experience speeds the learning process.

One question however, which is more likely to appreciate in value over the long term ?
A hundred dollar bill or a tong of tea?

Tea, because a hundred dollar bill loses value every single day, especially if it's USD.

[nickE]

Tea, because a hundred dollar bill loses value every single day, especially if it's USD.

Too true.

I have my financial calculator sitting here and am feeling a bit bored so let's see...

$100 earning an average annual return of 7% (not unreasonable) has a future value of ~$387 in 20 years.

Now let's say you bought just 1 bing of 7542 20 years ago; for simplicity reasons, you paid $10. Going by Nada's price of £228 (~$365) on his 1993 7542, you've been earning an annual return of almost 20%. This is of course assuming that the tea aged perfectly, and that you have access to a market of Puerh buyers. Anyway, I'd say the difference is pretty impressive.

If your $100 dollar cash investment earned that kind of return, you'd have $3,650 (just add a zero) in 20 years.

[apache]

....
Of course very few people are willing to share as they gather their experiences with expense of, lets say... "tuition fee" in any form.
Those who are willing to share, may have motives behind it.

In another words, no free luch; should one need 2 years to master a skill, why should he let others know the short-cut trick and learn the same skill in 6 months?
......

I don't think there is short-cut when come to tea tasting, it does take time to develop, but the more different tea (good and bad) you sample and better you get.

[apache]

....
$100 earning an average annual return of 7% (not unreasonable) has a future value of ~$387 in 20 years.
....

What, 7% every year, PM me and tell me how to do it. I need help as my pension fund is sinking ....

[alan logan]

I would make room for another story, very different from the "will increase in value with age" myth. Now, maybe you'd think "myth" is too a strong word, but, hypothetically, try to see it this way:
> pu er rising in value is a very recent story, that has already stumbled (2007 "bubble", although the "bubble" can be interpreted in different ways : crash or correction, for instance)
> before the few years pu er started to be considered a tea that one could pay expensive, it was of low value, compared to values reached by other types of tea --yet I am aware that this would depend what period of history we consider, and that certain pu ers meant for high society were likely to be much more expensive ; I am also aware that the post 50s and post 70's market structure has changed a lot, so comparing "values" seriously would need quite a bit or oratory precautions...
> rise of value is related to trends, always. Are trends that guide prices variations in pu er durable ? or are they ephemeral "surface" trends ? what "fundamentals" drive the value game ?
> Asia is a region where values are very nervous, whatever the value support; everything can go superhigh fast, much higher & faster than it can go in western regions. what then assures us that a cake with a 10 000HK$ price today may not be 100HK$ in 5 years ?
> in the west we have swallowed the "raise of value" story w/o even thinking. hey, let's face it: we just believed, we did not analyze or doubt much, did we ? maybe the asian drinker swallowed it just like that too, a little before we did. at some point maybe we should think that, whatever market we are on, if belief stops to drive the trend, value will drop, esp. if no "fundamental" drives equally.

I am not saying that in 5 years you'll be buying the best cakes for 1$ or €. All I am saying is that, in my opinion, nothing indicates that the trend for rise is a long term one. Nothing says for sure that prices will drop dramatically soon and stabilize low. but "down" is more likely than "up" imo (the big rises that we can observe in current days may be some "residual" peaks, but that's just personal impression, may be on wrong basis).

In one line:
All I' saying (and thinking) is...let's reflect on the "buy for investment" story: it may not be as real as it sounds.

[nickE]

What, 7% every year, PM me and tell me how to do it. I need help as my pension fund is sinking ....

Haha, well... 2008 kinda ruined most people's portfolio.

But anyway, I'm a big proponent of investing in ETF's that track small/mid-cap stocks. During 1925-2005, small-caps earned an average return of 12.5%; not bad. Of course, with greater reward comes greater risk.
http://www.famfin.com/images/equities-02-ibbotson.gif

I think we're getting slightly off topic.

@Alan logan
I agree, I'm talking about totally hypothetical situations that have a whole lot of assumptions to remain correct. All of my Puerh is kept for my own consumption.

[beecrofter]

Given that 7% growth all taxation aside the $387 should have almost the buying power of the $100 bill does right now!

[alan logan]

All of my Puerh is kept for my own consumption.

mine too