shah82 said there will be bubble pop eventually. I'm not trying to play devil advocate here, and all my opinions are pure speculation on second hand information and if you follow what I say, this will be for you own peril.
I think we need pu analysts like those in financial market to predict the market trend of pu. I think it will be either as shah82 said, the bubble pop or we had it too good in the past and we have to pay for the 'real' cost from now on. Around 2007/8, the bubble were on big factory products, this time round, it's small production cakes made of premium material. I think after 2008, much more people are aware of pu, also, there are much more middle class who can afford luxury items in China than ever before, so some undoubtedly will be interested in pu collection. And just happen pu also don't have (in a practical sense) shelf life limit, and I reckon some of us must have a mass at least over 10 years supply of pu for personal use, if you use this to estimate the realizable market in China for premium cakes, I wonder would production able to satisfy demand?
Of cause, all this just my speculation in the dark, we need information on the ground, but I don't know where I can find this. To play with the market with so much unknown, I think I would hedge my bet. What I means is use a portion of my money which is set aside for pu to buy what I can have my hand on, but not using all of it. In this sense, if price does go up, you don't loss out completely, and if the price fall, you still have money to pickup something at a lower price.
Jun 27th, '11, 19:10
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nada
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
My money's on the second scenario. Over the past few years, each year I go to the mountains, there's more, not less, producers there seeking old tree maocha.
Let's face it, how many tea drinkers who enjoy old tree puerh are actually going to stop drinking it? Not so many I think. I wonder each day how many more Chinese begin to enjoy old tree puerh.
With growing demand, not speculation as with the bubble in 2007 but by people who actually enjoy to drink it, I don't see this as a bubble that is likely to burst. These teas actually have some inherent value/quality for the people who buy them, unlike speculation over the big factory cakes.
Unfortunately for all of us who enjoy these teas, I can't see any short term falls in the price of maocha. The farmers, especially those from the more famous mountains, know they can edge up the prices each year and they'll still sell their tea.
It's the farmers, I think, who'll be the ones who will really benefit from all of this.
Let's face it, how many tea drinkers who enjoy old tree puerh are actually going to stop drinking it? Not so many I think. I wonder each day how many more Chinese begin to enjoy old tree puerh.
With growing demand, not speculation as with the bubble in 2007 but by people who actually enjoy to drink it, I don't see this as a bubble that is likely to burst. These teas actually have some inherent value/quality for the people who buy them, unlike speculation over the big factory cakes.
Unfortunately for all of us who enjoy these teas, I can't see any short term falls in the price of maocha. The farmers, especially those from the more famous mountains, know they can edge up the prices each year and they'll still sell their tea.
It's the farmers, I think, who'll be the ones who will really benefit from all of this.
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
I agree - not much flavor. This is why I decided not to order any. I still have some of my sample left and will try again. It may be better in the future, but for the price I don't think I'm willing to take the chance.pb2q wrote:
Also, this is a 2010 product, not 2011. I've tried these, and I'll concur with someone above who said: not much flavor. I'm not certain that this is related to it's age.
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
I think this point is a key one that we tend to forget.... the farmers are still probing out the true value of their tea...!nada wrote:The farmers, especially those from the more famous mountains, know they can edge up the prices each year and they'll still sell their tea.
From the 'stories,' there was a flood of bad pu'erh in the early-mid 2000s when the interest spiked. I'm sure we'll see a spike of fake 'old tree' teas and such, even more so than now...
Jun 27th, '11, 20:50
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Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
Unfortunately, faking old tree is a trend already a couple years ago... The old, ancient term is a blur, just like what is high mountain oolong from Taiwan?Drax wrote:I think this point is a key one that we tend to forget.... the farmers are still probing out the true value of their tea...!nada wrote:The farmers, especially those from the more famous mountains, know they can edge up the prices each year and they'll still sell their tea.
From the 'stories,' there was a flood of bad pu'erh in the early-mid 2000s when the interest spiked. I'm sure we'll see a spike of fake 'old tree' teas and such, even more so than now...
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
Indeed... so just think of how much more we'll get to enjoy all the faking going on....!TIM wrote:Unfortunately, faking old tree is a trend already a couple years ago... The old, ancient term is a blur, just like what is high mountain oolong from Taiwan?
Can't wait!
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
Fortunately, one can drink only a limited amount of tea. Let's take, for example, me.
Since I drink pu-erh in yixing, making a gong fu tea needs some time and space. Because of that, I drink pu-erh maybe every two days, or let's say, four times a week, ergo 200 times a year.
For each session I use from 5g (small teapot <90ml) up to 9g (130-140 ml pot) of tea leaves. I think. I can average it to 7 grams per session, 1,4 kilo per year. It's four bings.
Four bings each year are affordable, even with rising prices. On the other hand, most of us (yes, including me) buys more tea than he can drink... and sometimes, in future they will try to unload the tea to the public market.
Since I drink pu-erh in yixing, making a gong fu tea needs some time and space. Because of that, I drink pu-erh maybe every two days, or let's say, four times a week, ergo 200 times a year.
For each session I use from 5g (small teapot <90ml) up to 9g (130-140 ml pot) of tea leaves. I think. I can average it to 7 grams per session, 1,4 kilo per year. It's four bings.
Four bings each year are affordable, even with rising prices. On the other hand, most of us (yes, including me) buys more tea than he can drink... and sometimes, in future they will try to unload the tea to the public market.
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
it looks like a mantis to meCatfur wrote:From the looks, it's a bug (in the specific, not general sense). Probably some type of sap sucker bug or seed bug.Drax wrote:Neat, thanks!
So... is that a grasshopper?? (the long red thing).
Crazy insects...
Re: 2011 XZH cakes pictures
I think that puerh is very much tied to other bull markets in china.
I also think that Yunnan is very easily capable of satisfying genuine market demand. It's the size of France, after all, and while puerh tea is mainly grown in three prefectures, it is still a great deal of tea. For the most part, old tree tea is a stretch for the finances of the working and genuine middle class, especially outside of the coast, if they just want to drink it. Further growth in expense is very much reliant on the Chinese getting together and organizing standards and coordinating market penetration. Puerh was cheap for so long because people lied, cheated, and stole at first chance.
Old tree tea will always have some value, but that doesn't always translate into being an liquid asset on the buying or selling side, especially with unreliable information, like what we saw with Dayi 2003 Organic. I would, of course, avoid buying young Dayi at inflated prices.
Lastly, a crash doesn't necessarily mean you'll be able to scoop up cheap puerh. It could mean that trees stopped getting picked, and everything that's worth anything is hoarded for personal consumption while you can only buy trash. It could also mean the little new and intersting puerh reaches the West.
Perhaps, one can look at
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/ ... 73252.html
Remember, the survivors aren't things just anyone could get. They were very significant comics that were already pretty valuable before the boom. Think about what that would mean for tea. You might be gifting a great deal of tea you thought you'd sell...
I also think that Yunnan is very easily capable of satisfying genuine market demand. It's the size of France, after all, and while puerh tea is mainly grown in three prefectures, it is still a great deal of tea. For the most part, old tree tea is a stretch for the finances of the working and genuine middle class, especially outside of the coast, if they just want to drink it. Further growth in expense is very much reliant on the Chinese getting together and organizing standards and coordinating market penetration. Puerh was cheap for so long because people lied, cheated, and stole at first chance.
Old tree tea will always have some value, but that doesn't always translate into being an liquid asset on the buying or selling side, especially with unreliable information, like what we saw with Dayi 2003 Organic. I would, of course, avoid buying young Dayi at inflated prices.
Lastly, a crash doesn't necessarily mean you'll be able to scoop up cheap puerh. It could mean that trees stopped getting picked, and everything that's worth anything is hoarded for personal consumption while you can only buy trash. It could also mean the little new and intersting puerh reaches the West.
Perhaps, one can look at
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/ ... 73252.html
Remember, the survivors aren't things just anyone could get. They were very significant comics that were already pretty valuable before the boom. Think about what that would mean for tea. You might be gifting a great deal of tea you thought you'd sell...