I've never had aged pu but I have 100 tongs of 2009 sheng

[nickE]

Given that 7% growth all taxation aside the $387 should have almost the buying power of the $100 bill does right now!

Ah, people are so pessimistic these days.
If you hedge for 3% inflation, the $100 is still worth $220 in real dollars 20 years later.

[beecrofter]

20 years ago a gallon of gas was 1.15

[MarshalN]

Should've bought that gas and stored it somewhere

[the_skua]

luckily we do not have a 'RP' figure of the puerh world yet.

Hobbes.

[auhckw]

All of my Puerh is kept for my own consumption.

mine too

Mine too, except I tend to think of keeping some for my next generation and perhaps to exchange with friends in the future

Back to the topic...

Like any investment, there is always a risk. In aging Pu, your investment is Money, Time, Knowledge and Storage space. You can choose not to buy and learn till you get a PHD in Pu, but then when you decided to buy, Pu price ain't going to wait for you.

At the current moment, the price is heading up in the country I'm in. A Pu can increase in value of 20% to >200% in 1 or 3 years since it is released. For lesser famous brands, the increase is still ok, but for branded Pu, the price increase is quite fast.

I think it depends where you are heading in terms of buying Pu. Some people buy in big bulk without much knowledge about Pu but with the intention of purely making money/investment. Some people buy some pieces/toongs for personal collection...

For me, I don't really buy a lot per type. And I don't buy too cheap Pu. At the moment I have over 30 diff types of Pu... I don't have confident that all will turn out well, but I'm sure some will

And FYI, 1 toong of new tea can be cheaper than 1 piece of a good aged tea. Looking at my situation, I'm at the age of early 30s... with god's permission, I hope I have time to wait, so to really spend a lot in aged Pu is kind of not right. If I'm really rich, then that is a different case, but I'm not.

So while waiting, drink more ripe

[Milhouse]

Your right the pu prices aren't going to wait for anybody to get their PhD. From what i can tell it doesn't seem like anyone is planing to stop all pu-erh production and only leave us with whats already in the market right now though. I'm still going to be able to buy a brand new tong 5yrs from now since new stuff is coming out every single year. So in this case knowing theirs no shortage of new production, I'm not to worried about buying every brand new cake i can get my hands on. A new cake right now might increase up to 200% in the next 3yrs but do you think in 3yrs a new cake will cost 200% more? If the answer is no than their seems to be no real disadvantage to waiting to make long term buys until receiving a PhD from a Puniversity.

[auhckw]

Your right the pu prices aren't going to wait for anybody to get their PhD. From what i can tell it doesn't seem like anyone is planing to stop all pu-erh production and only leave us with whats already in the market right now though. I'm still going to be able to buy a brand new tong 5yrs from now since new stuff is coming out every single year. So in this case knowing theirs no shortage of new production, I'm not to worried about buying every brand new cake i can get my hands on. A new cake right now might increase up to 200% in the next 3yrs but do you think in 3yrs a new cake will cost 200% more? If the answer is no than their seems to be no real disadvantage to waiting to make long term buys until receiving a PhD from a Puniversity.

You are right. The answer is no... but...

New pu of the same recipe is getting more expensive yearly too. Over here, Eg. Dayi 7542 (2009) and (2010)... 2010 is same price as 2009. Meaning for the price you pay for 2010, you can get 2009 version (that is if there is stock). Why? Because the price the vendor gets is increasing which cannot be controlled by us. The factories will keep producing the same product, the only thing difference (besides quality) is the price will not be same yearly.

I know a few tea shops that do their own puerh branding are getting worried about raw material price going up too. Every year, for the same material the price keep increasing. This may sound like an excuse for some people to make more money, but then as more people drink tea and more people do tea biz, price will increase. Unless there is an 'tea crisis' coming or overstock and everyone stops drinking tea, chances are price is going up even for new tea.

That said... there is really no disadvantages of waiting a little while to make long term buys... just pay slightly more and wait a little longer...

[auhckw]

Another thing to think about...

How much do you think:-

Dayi Yiwu 2001 cost when it is still new in year 2001? I don't know the exact answer, but I'm guessing it is USD15.

Compare it to Dayi Yiwu 2010? This cost USD40 in 2010 brand new.

Brand new vs Brand new... price also differs...

[Milhouse]

I'd have to say that going from $15-40 in 9yrs isn't all that much. Everything increases in cost over time so obviously I'm not expecting to be able to buy a new tong 3yrs from now for the same price or less than I'd pay today. If every couple years a new cake went up $25 instead of $2.77 then I'd say that's something to worry about but its not.That added couple bucks spent on yearly increase isn't a big deal either if you factor in the money saved on making an informed decision on your purchase rather than a hasty one due to fear of cost going up next year.

[shah82]

Actually, the inflation of what a Dayi Yiwu costs brand new then and now isn't the issue. The bigger issue is that much of the inflation has been acting on a lower and lower stock of quality. Back then, you could buy a Yiwu, and be relatively sure that you've bought one, and that you didn't pay for a low grade. Today, $40 is about the least you can pay for genuine Yiwu. An excellent Yiwu is probably over $100, no question. What was in that '01 Dayi or those special request stuff from '99-'02 do not cost $40 new today. More than that, the good stuff tracks the inflation of the well-to-do, and the idea that $xxx is too much to pay for some silly heated drink has been eroding for awhile. That's why I buy as much of the good stuff I can, with considerable pain, afford.

[apache]

Even if you take the cost out of the equation (or money is no objective), the 64 million dollars question is how to decide what is good? I still don't know any better, I can only use my very limited tasting experience making very rough guesses and it's like betting on horses. May be that is what makes it interesting!

[auhckw]

Even if you take the cost out of the equation (or money is no objective), the 64 million dollars question is how to decide what is good? I still don't know any better, I can only use my very limited tasting experience making very rough guesses and it's like betting on horses. May be that is what makes it interesting!

What is good really depends on yourself. I may like it, but you not. So I think there is no fix rules. As long you are happy, it is good.

Some people may like the wet storage taste, but some people dare not even drink a sip upon knowing it is wet stored.

I think if you are buying for your own, no one can say it is bad tea. If you are buying to resell, as long the price is not expensive... and aged tea can still be sold. Either way still good.

Just like buying an investment (eg, stock or property). You can do all your home work. But is there 100% guarantee that it will turn out good in the long future? So if you apply the same theory, diversify the purchase. If all the purchase turned out good, then you are lucky. If not, at least some will and the risked reduced. I think the same can be applied in pu collection.

[apache]

Well, my taste changed over time. Two years ago, I like the taste of recent Dayi cakes, but after drinking a lot and compare with other teas, now I won't touch it! I think I would slow down my buying, only buy after a lot of trying and tasting and no more than 2 cakes per type, except something that I'm dead certain. For me, I would rather have only few cakes that I really enjoy than tongs and tongs of mediocre stuffs.

[wyardley]

Well, my taste changed over time. Two years ago, I like the taste of recent Dayi cakes, but after drinking a lot and compare with other teas, now I won't touch it!

I think this is a good point. When you're new to a hobby or interest, you may make purchases that you wouldn't make after more knowledge and experience. I can't even imagine the number of records, teas, etc. that I'd love to go back and tell my younger self to buy, or not buy.

Of course, there's always going to be mistakes and "tuition" fees. Just a good idea not to get in too deep.

[apache]

I went through the stage: I think I know.
Now I'm in the stage: I think I don't know any more and I don't know how long I will stuck here.