Can you drink 2008 Sheng

[tenuki]

I agree with kimble22 and found his post respectful, logical, and well supported, in stark contrast with most of the replies to it...

and yes, I have drunk horrible old puerh, my limited experience with aged puerh suggests that most aged puerh that I have access to can be generally as crappy tasting as new, just in a weaker or stranger way. That said it can be _way_ better too.

I'm curious if someone with the ability to be respectful and logical could try to convince* me to buy a bunch of young puerh from new factories for aging. Why would I want to?

* I mean 'convince' in the context of providing real reasons that might change my mind, not just calling me condescending and ignorant or saying 'good for you' in a sarcastic voice. I'm a reasonable person, if you have good reasons you have a chance of convincing me. If all you have are insults you have a 100% chance of insulting me.

[Salsero]

Working sick in corporate retail this close to Black Friday while trying to quit smoking is a recipe for anyone to explode in anger at the slightest frustration.

I think tea is a powerful help in quitting smoking.

[thanks]

I agree with kimble22 and found his post respectful, logical, and well supported, in stark contrast with most of the replies to it...

and yes, I have drunk horrible old puerh, my limited experience with aged puerh suggests that most aged puerh that I have access to can be generally as crappy tasting as new, just in a weaker or stranger way. That said it can be _way_ better too.

I'm curious if someone with the ability to be respectful and logical could try to convince* me to buy a bunch of young puerh from new factories for aging. Why would I want to?

* I mean 'convince' in the context of providing real reasons that might change my mind, not just calling me condescending and ignorant or saying 'good for you' in a sarcastic voice. I'm a reasonable person, if you have good reasons you have a chance of convincing me. If all you have are insults you have a 100% chance of insulting me.

This is the problem with text. The tone is almost always misunderstood. I wasn't trying to say good for you in a sarcastic voice, I was trying to say good for him. Just as I misunderstood his textual "tone" so did you of some of mine.

Respectful isn't assuming that most people on this forum are buying cakes with the thought of "that will admittedly taste "nasty" - but oh it will age so well even tho I have no experience aging cakes and nasty tasting must equal good in 30 years mentality". Instead it comes across, at least to me, as being disrespectful. Also implicitly saying that everyone buying younger cakes is "throwing money away" also seems disrespectful to me. I am wrong I guess, because no one else seems to agree. Where I'm sorry, or think that I'm wrong was with my rude response.

"I'm curious if someone with the ability to be respectful and logical could try to convince* me to buy a bunch of young puerh from new factories for aging. Why would I want to?"

I see what you're saying, and at the same time what I said wasn't just purely insults. I was trying to point out (in all the wrong ways) that people enjoy and view tea differently. There was something about his post that seemed rude to me, and apparently I'm the only person who thought that so I'm assuming it's this fever and stress from a lot of other things. In that case I apologize if I've offended you or kimble personally. It seems I've offended you more than him, well, at least until he responds. I didn't expect this to blow up into such a big deal. I hope we can all move past this and not continue to destroy this thread because of my ill-spirited response to what should be a welcomed new member of the forum.

[thanks]

Working sick in corporate retail this close to Black Friday while trying to quit smoking is a recipe for anyone to explode in anger at the slightest frustration.

I think tea is a powerful help in quitting smoking.

That's not to say I was, or currently am "exploding in anger." Just a little frustrated was all.

[thejamus]

I'm curious if someone with the ability to be respectful and logical could try to convince* me to buy a bunch of young puerh from new factories for aging. Why would I want to?

Even a Dayi Meng Hai 7542 for 2008 is cheap compared to a 2007, compared to a 2006, compared to a etc etc.

Even if you buy 10 $15 cakes, and only half age well, even after a year you would be better off.

Look at this (for 7542)

2008 802 $12.50
2008 801 $14.90
2007 703 $19.60

I think even completely random purchases on new tea will result in some teas that age significantly well and lower ownership cost over only buy tea with age and track record.

Obviously, FOCUSED buying of tea will result in even higher ratio of better tea that ages well, to tea that does not pan out.

This is a future looking statement, your results may differ than past performence.

I agree with this. Most of my collection falls between 2005-2008. Since most of my collection is young, I think it's important (not imperative though) to pay attention to the track history of a particular factory when looking at how it will age.

To a lot of people, the point in buying young pu-erh is to put it away. The Menghai 7542(801) is something I purchased a tong of and two bings of. It's a classic recipe and it's shown what it can do over time. I want to age it because I think it will be incredible someday. As it stands, I also happen to enjoy the taste of it right now but it's not my every day drinker. It's something I sample every couple months, just to see how it's coming along. All the while, I'm busy sampling and drinking whatever else I can get my hands on.

To shift the lens a bit, I must say that I'm also not opposed to buying from younger factories either. Just look at Haiwan vs. Menghai. One old factory, one new. Both of them have done a great job of producing some quality teas. A perfect example of this for comparison is the Lao Cha Tou offered by each. Both fetch the same price, but you're getting twice as much leaf with Haiwan. The menghai may be just a touch smoother, but not twice the price smoother. I honestly believe that given a couple more months to age, the Haiwan would be just as smooth. In terms of longevity and flavour, they both are incredible. They're both going to age well, but the Menghai name commands a little higher price, plus they don't release this every year. Buy a sample of each and compare them side by side.

My point is that history is important, but don't let it be your only deciding factor for buying young pu-erh.

[tenuki]

You are using 7542 as a example, which isn't a 'new factory'. I buy that recipe every year, you don't have to talk me into that. I was asking why I should buy unknown/new factory cakes. Haiwan isn't exactly a unknown factory either, and was founded by the former manager of Menghai. So while that is an acceptable example it isn't a typical one.

Also, could you complete your finacial analysis by normalizing the 'investment' with factors like monetary inflation and other investment possiblities?

The example you give has a simple anualized ROI of ~22% not counting normalizing factors, admittedly pretty good. But that is the best case scenario of the most famous known recipe and the most famous factory. That is like saying look at Microsoft's performance as a stock, now, invest in any stock based on that performance... I don't think you would accept that argument for stocks, why accept it for puerh?

-tk

[thanks]

You are using 7542 as a example, which isn't a 'new factory'. I buy that recipe every year, you don't have to talk me into that. I was asking why I should buy unknown/new factory cakes. Haiwan isn't exactly a unknown factory either, and was founded by the former manager of Menghai. So while that is an acceptable example it isn't a typical one.

Also, could you complete your finacial analysis by normalizing the 'investment' with factors like monetary inflation and other investment possiblities?

The example you give has a simple anualized ROI of ~22% not counting normalizing factors, admittedly pretty good. But that is the best case scenario of the most famous known recipe and the most famous factory. That is like saying look at Microsoft's performance as a stock, now, invest in any stock based on that performance... I don't think you would accept that argument for stocks, why accept it for puerh?

-tk

Oh, I see. I think most of the misunderstanding was that we were talking about very different things. As someone who buys pu-erh only to drink and age so that I can drink good tea as I age with it, I was offended that someone would call that wasting money because I wasn't always trying to buy what would always increase in price. My point was some people invest, some people drink, some people age, and some people do all of that or mix and match. That's great, that's what makes this hobby so rewarding and fun to talk about.

[thejamus]

I can definitely understand the need to rationalize pu-erh as an investment, but when we start getting into Return on Investment, I'm not at the point where I'm ready to look at my tea as a financial kickback. I just say "I like this; to me it's worth the price I pay for it" and know that over time, it's going to increase in value, both in the quality of cup it brews and monetarily. I'm much in alignment with thanks though because my real aim for aging is to have good tea to last me my life throughout.

[Wesli]

Whew, looks like someone left the kettle on in here!


The truth is, nobody, not even the foremost puerh experts, know how these new cakes are going to turn out. It's a big mystery to everyone, and arguing about it before some good aging has occurred relies on unfounded speculation.

There are two stances, optimistic, and pessimistic. You can be pessimistic and think that all the new-type sheng won't age well, or you can be optimistic and hope that they will age just as well as previous recipes, or even better. To be even more pessimistic, you could say that even the 7542 these years is different enough from how it used to be, so all new sheng, classic recipes included, aren't going to age well.

I'm optimistic. I think that a lot of these new companies are putting substantial effort into getting higher quality products to put on the market in order to create a name for themselves. Meanwhile, the old factories are making the same quality schwag because they're already well-established. There's really no evidence to say that new-type sheng isn't going to age many times better than classic recipes.

I can't wait to see how these arguments go 10, 15, 20 years from now.

[Salsero]

I think Wesli is -- as so often seems to be the case -- right. It is an enormous crap shoot, especially in light of the huge changes in the demand, the price, the raw leaves, and the lack of real information about how old teas were actually made and what went into the leaves.

Let's face it, we are dealing with an industry that has idolized wild, semi-wild, and old tree tea leaves, when there is no hard data to suggest that these will age as well, better, or worse than historical cakes.

Just because we can clutch at a recipe number that produced good cakes ten or twenty years ago, we have very little reason to expect that today's cakes will necessarily perform the same in the future.

[Jeremy]

Sorry, I'm new here too, but I do have a few thoughts on Sheng/Shu. First off, I first had puerh about a year ago and needless to say my passion has snowballed quickly. But in my small history it seems way too many of you are excited about brand new offerings from unproven companies. Do you remember the baseball card industry when it became super popular and tons of new companies sprung up, and old companies dramatically increased their offerings? So my question is why go out and buy 50 dollar 1-2 year old cakes from a start up company (that will admittedly taste "nasty" - but oh it will age so well even tho I have no experience aging cakes and nasty tasting must equal good in 30 years mentality). I prefer quality over quantity any day, and taste and rarity will determine if the cake appreciates, not just aging. If there are shit tons of Boyou tea in 30 years and it all tastes terrible there will be hardly any appreciation.

I don't mean to take the fun out of new cakes, but as a person who has already dumped money into lots of cakes I think I would gladly trade in all my undrinkable/unenjoyable tea for a 1950 Red Mark, or some Simplified Characters.

Sorry to ramble, (but in this environment there is no point in throwing money away) but the point is buy some cheap shu that you like, and then speculate/age if you like for some fun on the side, and if you're collecting go for the good stuff that acts as a benchmark for the market as a whole.

Since when are menghai and mengku considered "new or unproven". I do however agree with you general idea. I do think that Im not as excited at the 2008 stuff as I am some of the previous years. I also do like more premium teas as opposed to common stuff. But if you look at what is considered good now, 5 years ago it might have been considered risky. So it is all somewhat speculative. I think its cool how some of the bloggers here are doing their own research / speculation. Who knows maybe some of the 2008 will be like a red mark in 50 years LOL

Just my 2c

[TIM]

Working sick in corporate retail this close to Black Friday while trying to quit smoking is a recipe for anyone to explode in anger at the slightest frustration.

I think tea is a powerful help in quitting smoking.

I hope that's True, Sal

[tenuki]

I can definitely understand the need to rationalize pu-erh as an investment, but when we start getting into Return on Investment, I'm not at the point where I'm ready to look at my tea as a financial kickback. I just say "I like this; to me it's worth the price I pay for it" and know that over time, it's going to increase in value, both in the quality of cup it brews and monetarily. I'm much in alignment with thanks though because my real aim for aging is to have good tea to last me my life throughout.

You are right a TVM calculation would be more in line with your approach... ;P