There's another pu erh bubble...

[stockman]

I've seen during the last 2 years how pu erh prices have been increased a lot, and this year it seems to be a peak in prices, as many companies such as dayi has reduced some cakes wheight but they have increased prices...

I'm planning not to buy any dayi cake (also due to the large amount of fakes) and sticking to other brands such as xiaguan or haiwan, that seems to have better price-quality relation.

What do you think? Which brands do you think that have the best price-quality relation?

[Rui]

In most cases I'll be buying from trusted sellers. Relationships I have been trying to build for the past couple of years since I started drinking pu'er tea almost 3 years ago.

As to tea manufacturers I'll stay mostly from small tea manufacturers 95% of the time.

[jayinhk]

I would buy Dayi over everything--just realized the local distributor ships to my door in two days and I only pay $5 regardless of quantity!

[Rui]

I would buy Dayi over everything--just realized the local distributor ships to my door in two days and I only pay $5 regardless of quantity!

Usually that is where the other 5% goes.

[jayinhk]

Actually $4 to SF Express for residential delivery. Might pick up some 7542 for the long haul while I'm at it!

[theredbaron]

I've seen during the last 2 years how pu erh prices have been increased a lot, and this year it seems to be a peak in prices, as many companies such as dayi has reduced some cakes wheight but they have increased prices...

I'm planning not to buy any dayi cake (also due to the large amount of fakes) and sticking to other brands such as xiaguan or haiwan, that seems to have better price-quality relation.

What do you think? Which brands do you think that have the best price-quality relation?

I don't think that we have a Pu Erh bubble, but market prices regulating themselves. Income has been rising in China and therefore labor costs to manufacture tea. Demand from within China in Pu Erh teas has increased as well. The times when Pu Erh was cheaper than other Chinese teas is over, i am afraid.
As to large factory teas, it is nice to have some stock for every day drinking, but it gets much more interesting to have a selection of wild arbor and maybe even some ancient arbor single estate teas, and some expert blends. An option for the adventurer is always white label teas, where if lucky, one can find some really nice ones for not so much money (or have some blanks as well).

Fortunately i have been doing most of my buying when prices were still substantially lower...

[William]

People who used to buy Pu Erh in the past praise their accumulated tea, even if of crappy quality (but of course there are out there stash composed of extremely fine quality, therefore let's leave the generalizations to the stupid ones).
Those who weren't into buying Pu Erh at all or just beginners when prices where low, but don't want to spend money for quality now, constantly complains for not purchasing the right stuff at the right time (of course instead of building a decent stash just continue to drink crappy tea).
Those who care only of quality (regardless of whether or not they bought when prices were low), constantly hunt for good tea, with period or higher activity and period of minor activity (phases that can last even for years), where the hunting rate mostly depend on the prices the market command in a given time period.

The wise ones, learn very quickly ..

[jayinhk]

What with the weakening RMB and slower growth, we may see pu erh prices level off and possibly even drop in the next few years. Hong Kong has seen its first drop in property prices in years, and the property market here is heavily propped up by Chinese investors. I'm not in the business and I'm not buying for any serious investment, so as long as I am buying good tea for my own future consumption, I'm happy.

What is everyone buying?

[stockman]

I also buy pu erh only for my future comsumption, not as an investment, but I have seen that big factory pu prices has been increased in relation of older pu.

I mean, if you take a look you'll see that 2014-2015 cakes and tuos are more expensive than 2009-2012 ones.

[pVT]

Shuangjiang Mengku has a reputation for making strong, humble sheng that ages well, without significant price fluctuations due to speculation. Hence the price of these cakes tends to remain in line with the actual value of the material. Not a Menghai profile, but if you like a Lincang area character to your sheng, try some of their cakes from the mid-aughts. Not hard to find.

[jayinhk]

pVT, thank you, I'm looking at their offerings now! I have yet to try any of their teas.

[stockman]

where do you buy mengku cakes? I find it difficult to find a medium to large variety... (like with xiaguan, there's not much variety)

[Rui]

At the moment I get some Mengku from either Yunnan Sourcing or King Tea in Ali Express. He has a fairly nice selection of Mengku teas.

[jayinhk]

YS prices seem quite fair for Mengku vs Taobao.

[Drax]

I mean, if you take a look you'll see that 2014-2015 cakes and tuos are more expensive than 2009-2012 ones.

The same has happened with various types of cakes...

I have wondered whether this is a result of speculation -- a shifting of the future price into the present. In other words, many years ago, a 20-year-old cake might sell for $1000, but it was probably $10 (or less) at year 1.

And now, it's like people think "well, this cake will be $1000 in 20 years, so I can at least sell it for $100 at year 1." And here we are -- whether that cake will actually be GOOD in 20 years has completely fallen out of the picture.

It's been happening over the last 5-10 years, so I think that we'll start to see the truth or folly of it all over the next 10 years.

But, that's just a guess on my part.