So , what is the effect on the Puerh market for buyers in the West ?
I don't see any price reductions on current or vintage stock .
Is the market re-pricing from '08 vintage going forward ?
nothing really, im not expert, but i think prices have already adjusted a few years back, if the bubble a few years back did put some unethical vendors or speculators out, hopefully, this time around they do...
i dont think that the big factories will be dropping their prices, i do think that they will take steps to protect their prices and continue to develop the market and introduce better quality leaves.
as for the recent discussion on bubble burst in the newspaper article, i think there will be people who will still buy the farmer's harvest, probably from the more knowledgeable and "bigger" clients who have been in the industry for a long time already, hopefully weeding out the speculators out of the scene. at the end of the day, its the consumer who will really gain from this all... as long as there is good knowledge amongst the consumers, unethical vendors wont have the chance to survive. and hopefully we all mature to a higher level of tea purchasing
just my opinion
-darwin
i dont think that the big factories will be dropping their prices, i do think that they will take steps to protect their prices and continue to develop the market and introduce better quality leaves.
as for the recent discussion on bubble burst in the newspaper article, i think there will be people who will still buy the farmer's harvest, probably from the more knowledgeable and "bigger" clients who have been in the industry for a long time already, hopefully weeding out the speculators out of the scene. at the end of the day, its the consumer who will really gain from this all... as long as there is good knowledge amongst the consumers, unethical vendors wont have the chance to survive. and hopefully we all mature to a higher level of tea purchasing
just my opinion
-darwin
Mar 4th, '09, 11:43
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vibrantdragon
I agree with what odarwin said, much of the adjustment happened last year.
Pu’er Tea Boom Bust, but what about those that just love tea!
Some farmers that did not really have the good tea bushes are switching or getting out of the business. The cost of leaves (Mao cha) from last year did dropped a little from the year before (the real old tea tree leaves stayed the same) and and boom demand has drop, but the good tea makers will continue to make good tea. Most of the loss in production will hopefully be in the non old tea tree leaves, so a lot of the low quality tea and miss lableld tea will disappear from the market. Many that were buying at very high prices are gone(speculators), but the people buying the normal teas to be drunk have not gone anywhere and are still buying the same amount. My opinion is that we will see better quality at normal prices. The cheaper junk tea, they stilled charged you full price, will be dwindle away without the boom demand. I would not expect a huge price drop unless you did buy the very expensive tea, by expensive I would place at greater than $100 per bing. In fact I just heard that old tree Mao Cha is costing a little more than last year right now. I still would not trust anyone offering very cheap old tree tea.
Pu’er Tea Boom Bust, but what about those that just love tea!
Some farmers that did not really have the good tea bushes are switching or getting out of the business. The cost of leaves (Mao cha) from last year did dropped a little from the year before (the real old tea tree leaves stayed the same) and and boom demand has drop, but the good tea makers will continue to make good tea. Most of the loss in production will hopefully be in the non old tea tree leaves, so a lot of the low quality tea and miss lableld tea will disappear from the market. Many that were buying at very high prices are gone(speculators), but the people buying the normal teas to be drunk have not gone anywhere and are still buying the same amount. My opinion is that we will see better quality at normal prices. The cheaper junk tea, they stilled charged you full price, will be dwindle away without the boom demand. I would not expect a huge price drop unless you did buy the very expensive tea, by expensive I would place at greater than $100 per bing. In fact I just heard that old tree Mao Cha is costing a little more than last year right now. I still would not trust anyone offering very cheap old tree tea.
Vibrant Dragon
Maybe they'll form a "bad pu-erh investment bank" to buy up all the bad investments in pu-erh. And then maybe all the bad investments (but good tea) will be sold at dirt cheap prices.TomVerlain wrote:Of course, PM me if you have a few tongs of "88" cakes you are willing to let go for $30 a cake.
Maybe...
Mar 4th, '09, 18:36
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hop_goblin
The evidence suggests that the pu bubble has burst. Just look at the prices for Dayi products. Some have dramatically dropped, even as much as 50%. I am not sure if this will transulate to the more boutique products or those composed of Lao Banzhang or other well sought after mao cha. As for vintatge stock, there will always be a market for this stuff so I assume that prices will reflect that. But wouldn't it be great if it also declined!
Don't always believe what you think!
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Mar 4th, '09, 23:09
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hop_goblin
How about calling them "toxic assets/puerh"?[/quote]teakid wrote:Maybe they'll form a "bad pu-erh investment bank" to buy up all the bad investments in pu-erh.......
Don't always believe what you think!
http://www.ancientteahorseroad.blogspot.com
http://englishtea.us/
http://www.ancientteahorseroad.blogspot.com
http://englishtea.us/
They won't (I mean I think they won't). Reason for downfall of Dayi must be they lost credit since 04, sticking to Tai Di Cha and expanding farms. Just like how the bubble let mass crowds start Puerh business.hop_goblin wrote:The evidence suggests that the pu bubble has burst. Just look at the prices for Dayi products. Some have dramatically dropped, even as much as 50%. I am not sure if this will transulate to the more boutique products or those composed of Lao Banzhang or other well sought after mao cha. As for vintatge stock, there will always be a market for this stuff so I assume that prices will reflect that. But wouldn't it be great if it also declined!
It just has to do with unpromising supplies and losing of craftsmanship, like when the Chinese heard "oh there's money' and everyone went for that, that eventually lead to collapsing of the market (not yet). But good products still live on, maybe we can check it out for this year's Lao Ban Zhang price.
For anything, I think exchange currency or economy crisis might affect the price more than that.
I mean, I truly welcome for the day when I don't have to count a number of LBZ leaves and drink casually like Yancha
